Friday, December 23, 2011

5 Reasons why the NBA will never top the NFL

For those who know me, I am an avid sports fan. I love the Dallas Cowboys, I love the Chicago Bulls, love Penn St. Football (still), and I really like the Miami Heat (from the old Knicks/Heat rivalry days).  Both the NFL and the NBA had a lockout this year after experiencing their best seasons ever (Which is like winning the lottery but not cashing in your ticket because you feel like the government is taxing your winnings too much. They are, but who wouldn't still want $60 of the $100 mil they won? NFL and NBA owners).  Nonetheless, here is the list:

5) It's a man's world.  You know why nobody ever complains that it's not fair that a star high school football player is being denied their ability to earn a living by not being allowed into the NFL? Because it's for MEN, not BOYS. If the NBA had not removed all semblance of physicality, they wouldn't have this problem.  You know why you didn't hear about high school kids going to the NBA before the 90's? Because you had to be a man to play then, now all these guys are in the NBA and never seen a weight room.  Make the league for MEN, and only MEN will play.  College is for BOYS to become MEN. The NFL got it right, the NBA dropped the ball.

4) The Super Bowl.  The most viewed NBA game will never garner more attention than the Super Bowl.  The Super Bowl is an event, name a person who doesn't know what the super bowl is or when it is.  Companies make sales around the Super Bowl like it's a holiday.  Even if it's the Buccaneers and the Raiders, you're watching. Nobody watches the Finals if it's not a good match up. Remember the Spurs/Cavs finals? Me either.

3) David Stern.  Now, I'm not even going to get on the whole trade veto thing, David Stern's biggest mistake started way before that.  His biggest mistake? Marketing players over teams.  In the NFL people are fans of a team, Cowboys, Redskins, Steelers, Packers, 49ers, Bears, etc.  As players come and go , their loyalty remains unchanged.  In the NBA you have your die hard fans but so many people are fans of players first. People were Nuggets fans because of Melo, Magic fans because of Howard, Hornets fans because of Paul.  Look in the news, how many people are Clippers fans now? Heat/Bulls fans last year?  David Stern messed up because he did not know how to market team and player, the only teams it can market are the Lakers, Celtics, Knicks, and that's only when they're good.

2) Business Model. Hang with me while I explain this using a little math that I hope you follow. The average NBA stadium seats 18,000 and the average ticket price is $72.36. The NBA plays 82 games a year (minus this season).  That equates to roughly $107 mil revenue potential per team.  The average NFL stadium seats 70,000 and the average ticket price is $113.17.  The NFL plays 16 games a season.  That equates to roughly $127 mil revenue potential per team (both figures are if all games were sold out).  Looks relatively even, right? Wrong.  The difference is in the number of games.  Because the NBA plays so many games, the demand to see the games is so much less than the NFL.  The current TV contracts for both leagues looks like this .  Currently each NBA team receives on average $31M in TV rights where with its new deal each NFL team receives on average $218M.  Those numbers are not typos.  Despite having double the payroll than the NBA, the NFL will always be better because the demand for 16 NFL games is bigger than the demand for 82 NBA games.  Not to mention that the attendance of NBA games makes it highly unlikely for most teams to achieve the revenue number I used.

I hope you all followed that, the base is this: Between ticket revenue and TV revenue each NFL team is making over $200 million more than it's NBA counterpart, $200 million!

1) Stupid Owners. Quick, can you tell me which of these players is in the top 5 highest paid players in the NBA: Chris Paul, Dwayne Wade, Rashard Lewis, Lebron James, Gilbert Arenas, Dwight Howard?

If you guessed Rashard Lewis (2nd) and Gilbert Arenas (5th), you would be correct.  It's sad that Arenas is the 5th highest paid player in the league right now, and he doesn't even have a job.  That is the #1 reason why the NFL is better than the NBA, it's owners are just smarter, or maybe just not as dumb.

Thanks for reading. As always, any feedback is appreciated.

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